Iraqi elections spark Arab soul-searching
Debate is shifting from U.S. intentions to the will of Iraqis

By Rami G. Khouri
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Analysis

BEIRUT: The relatively high turnout Sunday in most regions of Iraq for the elections for a transitional national assembly will now spark separate but related dynamics in three concentric circles in Iraq, the Arab world, and the United States. Iraqis must address the domestic challenges of reconstruction, reconciliation and power-sharing; Americans must decide if Iraq will be the successful beginning or the ignominious end of their strategy of pre-emptive war, regime change, fighting terror and promoting democracy in the Middle East; and Arab societies have to assess both Baghdad and Washington and draw appropriate lessons from the messages from them both.

Already, though, the Iraqi people's generally strong, enthusiastic participation in the election is causing many people in the Arab world to look again and reassess the political implications of developments inside Iraq. The quiet soul-searching in many Arab minds and lands is as intense as the triumphalist exuberance of the American administration.

The mixed attitude to the Iraqi elections that defines many Arabs was succinctly expressed by Osama Safa, the general director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, a leading regional research center. He told The Daily Star Monday: "Despite its many flaws and contested origins, the election in Iraq was a very significant and positive development that allowed Iraqis to express themselves freely for the first time in over three decades. The momentum from this process in Iraq should be fully embraced and supported by all Arabs."

Other political activists, researchers and analysts from Jordan, Bahrain and Lebanon who have opposed the American presence and policy in Iraq similarly said in separate interviews that the clear voice of the Iraqi people Sunday was compelling in its clarity and intent. A common Arab view seems to be that the election and the domestic political process to follow is the most feasible way to end the occupation and violence in Iraq and set the country back on a path to normal life, despite prevalent resentment at the American military's role in paving the way for the election.

A Bahraini lawyer and political activist engaged in democracy promotion in his own country said "the new Iraqi government to be formed soon will have 'relative legitimacy.' It is legitimate because of the elections, but somewhat less legitimate because the elections happened under the aegis of the American military."

A Lebanese political science professor and anti-corruption activist noted wryly that "these elections are certainly one way of imposing one's views and values from outside. They seem to be the only way to end the occupation, though we are likely still to see problems within Iraq in the period ahead." 

That period ahead will see Iraqis coming to grips with a series of linked developments that will determine how quickly the country emerges from its current stressed situation. The most important challenges ahead are: promoting reconciliation among all Iraqis, ending the armed resistance against foreign forces and the terror attacks against Iraqis, ultimately ending the American-led foreign military occupation and administration, writing and ratifying a permanent constitution that all Iraqis approve and that foments a realistic power-sharing system, and restoring daily security, basic services and economic activity.

How Iraqis tackle these tasks will determine whether the country emerges as a shining example of Arab democratic pluralism, or sinks into a permanent state of violence and possibly breaks up into several countries.

Prominent Lebanese law professor and democracy activist Chibli Mallat called the Sunday election "an extraordinary example of self-assertion by the Iraqi people, who showed they were willing to risk death for the right to vote for their leaders. Whether this electoral process has any impact on others in the Middle East will be determined by the next steps inside Iraq."

There is a sense among political observers and analysts throughout the region that the elections are one important milestone on a very long journey that needs other milestones to be achieved. The force of the Iraqi people's political statement Sunday seems to be shifting the center of gravity of the debate on Iraq from the largely suspect intentions of the Americans to the welcomed expressed will of the Iraqis.